2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
Exxon Mobile has recently published the energy sector outlook for the year 2040, an annual report that helps as a guide for long-term investments.
One of the first questions asked in the report is the world energy situation in the year 2040, starting with the long-term perspective of the world population and economy.
According to Exxon Mobile and based on United Nations data, the world population will reach 9.1 billion inhabitants compared to the current 7.2 billion, an increase of 26.38% in a period of 24 years and more specifillay the urbanization rate is growing exponentially year after year.
As for the global Gross Domestic Product, it is expected to double for the same period mentioned above, mainly due to the growth of emerging and non-OECD countries, where the Asia Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa regions stand out.
This combination of increased population and wealth will mean that several million people can achieve middle-class status and lead to increased demand for energy, which Exxon Mobile numbers 25% by 2040.
This increase in demand will boost the integration of all types of energy sources in order to reach that demand, where the fossil energy sources (gas and oil) will be 60% and that renewable energy and nuclear 25% of the world mix energy. Urban electrification is also expected to be boosted, where it is expected that 55% of the increase in global energy demand will be linked to the generation of energy in order to support a lifestyle that is increasingly dependent on new technologies.
Therefore, although the population is increasingly demanding energy friendly with the environment, oil will still be an essential energy for both households and industry, but considering that the industry must invest in research, development and innovation to make the energy source less polluting. In fact, Exxon Mobile estimates that gas will outstrip coal as the world's second-largest fuel in a decade.
The world has been experiencing a revolution in energy supply in recent years, with significant oil and natural gas reserves with many discoveries in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where in the year 2015 out of the 20 most important findings, up to 15 were spotted in the African continent, according to the report elaborated by well-known consulting company PWC in August 2016 about the oil and gas sector in Africa.
In that same report of PWC it is stated that the African continent has 7,6% of the world total reserves of oil and another 7,5% of the world total reserves of gas.
Although the industry's outlook is not entirely optimistic, there are reasons for multinational corporations from Asia, America and Europe will continue to invest in Africa, especially since reserves found accounts 57% discovered in this year’s top-20 discoveries, especially in the northern and western regions of the African continent.
In both the Exxon Mobile report and the PWC report, they make special emphasis on the efficiency of the industry, which is slowly moving towards the digitization of processes, and should continue to focus on homogenizing and following quality standards to achieve efficiency, as well as focusing on training the staff in such fundamental aspects as safety in the extractive sector.
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